Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 8 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 27 July 2026 at 06:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 39th strongest of the 233 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 9 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 2:06AM EDT until July 27 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 510,907 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 23, 2026 · score 48 · 4.5 km
- July 27, 2026 · score 48 · 5.0 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 48 · 5.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.3417, -77.1512 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (27 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 510.9K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-27T06:06:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cbf0a3fd7af16435ab20afdb9b74070c |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-27T06:06:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-27T06:08:22.227Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Hanover, VA; Louisa, VA; Kent, MD; Queen Anne's, MD; Spotsylvania, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 2:06AM EDT until July 27 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-27T02:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cbf0a3fd7af16435ab20afdb9b74070c1c691c31.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.11f25c6a67bdf50ebd123692c7cdb1d06191f2eb.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4a44ca40f35c3e5b98ef6f371790758f511f679f.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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